May 18, 2023 Tungsten Market Situation
The tungsten price is stable for the time being, market participants are cautiously watching the fundamental situation, although there are some shipments of cash sentiment at the raw material end, but the overall willingness to let the price is not high, the downstream users are cautious to receive goods on demand for the continuation of the state, there is no clear good news guidance at the demand side for the time being. Tungsten products prices basically maintain a weak and stable operation in the short term, market trading is cautious, the transaction negotiation more bargaining.
Tungsten concentrate quotations remain at a high level of 121,000 yuan/ton, and the spot transaction status is stagnant.
APT quotation is stagnant at 180,000 yuan/ton mark, the businessmen’s gaming mentality has no obvious fluctuation for the time being, generally follow the line to maintain stability, the downstream users are less willing to take orders at high levels, the market transaction performance is under pressure, caution to avoid the risk of inversion.
Tungsten powder prices are stagnant at about 276 yuan / kg, the center of gravity of the bargaining trade is relatively loose, mainly by the industry chain upstream and downstream divergent mentality, market transactions are stagnant, the amount of new orders received is not much, some merchants to seek shipments at a profit, but the consumption of good feedback is limited.
Macro, the domestic market in April, the consumer recovery trend has slowed down, according to the National Bureau of Statistics data, in April the total retail sales of consumer goods grew 18.4% year-on-year, the growth rate accelerated by 7.8 percentage points compared to March, industrial value added above the scale increased by 5.6% year-on-year, accelerated by 1.7 percentage points compared to March. The data show that on the basis of the low base caused by the impact of the epidemic in the same period last year, domestic consumption and industrial growth continued to pick up, but the rebound was less than the market expectations.
May 18, 2023 molybdenum market situation
The overall center of gravity of domestic molybdenum prices did not change significantly for the time being, mainly attributed to the relative balance between supply and demand as well as no major good news released in the market for the time being. In this situation, buyers and sellers mostly wait and see, waiting for a new round of steel recruitment guidelines.
From the supply side, the market spot inventory will not grow at a fast pace mainly because: downstream users basically maintain immediate demand for procurement; domestic molybdenum raw material imports are limited due to factors such as international molybdenum prices and RMB devaluation (USD1 equals RMB7.00); due to the sharp rise in molybdenum product prices in the early stage, many suppliers’ profit consciousness has also increased, which is also one of the factors leading to the recent market spot inventory growth. One of the factors that led to the slow growth of inventory. From the demand side, stainless steel prices continue to fall, increasing the risk of cost inversion faced by stainless steel plants, to a large extent, affect the demand for ferromolybdenum.
News: National Bureau of Statistics data show that from January to April 2023, the country’s cumulative production of 354 million tons of crude steel, a cumulative daily output of 2.9533 million tons, an increase of 4.10%; production of 298 million tons of pig iron, a cumulative daily output of 2.4803 million tons, an increase of 5.80%; production of 446 million tons of steel, an increase of 5.20 %, a cumulative daily output of 3.7197 million tons The total daily output was 3,719,700 tons. In April, the production of crude steel 92,640,000 tons, down 1.50%; production of pig iron 77,840,000 tons, up 1.00%; production of steel 11,995,000 tons, up 5.00%.
May 18, 2023 rare earth quotes
The overall center of gravity of domestic rare earth prices remained slightly upward, mainly attributed to downstream users’ immediate need for replenishment, enhanced production cost support and some rare earth manufacturers’ capacity release slowed down. In addition, the devaluation of RMB (1 USD is approximately equal to 7.00 RMB) and the enhanced purchasing power of USD, which is favorable to the increase of rare earth exports as well as unfavorable to the increase of rare earth imports, is also an important source of energy for the tentative upward adjustment of current rare earth holders’ offers.
It is worth mentioning that, influenced by factors such as immature production technology and environmental pressure, the U.S. domestic rare earths simply cannot meet their own needs, and most rely on imports, mainly from China. China is the world’s largest producer, producer and exporter of rare earths, providing approximately 90% of the world’s rare earth products each year.
However, as the negative factors in the rare earth market such as slow downstream demand follow up and relatively loose spot supply in the field still exist, so participants should mostly be cautious and wait and see, and the market may continue to maintain an upward shaking pattern in the short term.
In the morning of May 17, the offshore RMB to the dollar exchange rate fell below the “7” mark for the first time in the year. In this regard, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Orient Gold, believes that it is mainly influenced by the following aspects: First, at the Fed’s May rate meeting, the Fed said that the possibility of a rate cut within the year is very small, and this statement has driven the recent rebound in the U.S. dollar index; second, the ratio effect, the RMB will depreciate to a certain extent against the U.S. dollar; third, since the beginning of the year, the domestic exchange rate is generally low and the sale rate is high. In addition, Everbright Bank Financial Markets Department macro researcher said that the recent release of economic data is less than expected, the pace of domestic demand recovery short-term fluctuations, triggering market expectations of monetary policy easing, is also one of the reasons for the recent fall in the RMB exchange rate against the dollar.
News: Jiangxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission said that in April 2023 the province included in the monitoring directory of industrial production materials in steel prices to fall, rare earth and tungsten concentrate prices fell, cement prices fell slightly, sand and gravel prices were stable; agricultural production materials in fertilizer prices fell, feed prices to fall. Among them, in April Ganzhou high yttrium oxide (rare earth), yttrium europium oxide (rare earth) per ton of average sales price of 270,000 yuan and 215,000 yuan, down 3.57% and 12.24%, down 35.71% and 40.28%, respectively. The average sales price per ton of tungsten concentrate in Ganzhou was RMB114,000, down 3.39% YoY and 4.20% YoY.
May 18, 2023 Cobalt Lithium Nickel Market Quotes
Cobalt prices are temporarily stabilized, the market supply and demand fundamentals continue to be under pressure, the overall transaction dynamics are flat, and the market is trying to repair at the bottom. Deppon Securities pointed out that the consumer electronics boom was downward in 2022 due to the slowdown in global economic growth, repeated epidemics that weakened consumer demand, and increased pressure on market inventories after manufacturers’ stockpiling due to lack of cores. Looking ahead to this year, with inventory clearing and demand improvement, consumer electronics performance is expected to rebound at the bottom.
Lithium prices continue to rise, mainly due to the electric vehicle market consumption is expected to warm up, as well as the market rebound after the previous negative market willingness to enhance. Tianqi lithium industry recently expressed confidence in the long-term development of the new energy industry, despite the risk of cyclical price fluctuations in lithium prices, but the downstream terminals, especially new energy vehicles and boats and energy storage industry’s future high growth expectations, the relevant policy tilt is objective and can be reasonably expected. In the future, strive to reach about 300,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent lithium chemical products production capacity by 2027, to further play the synergistic effect of the industry chain.
Nickel prices are generally weak finishing, on the one hand, due to the continued expansion of raw material capacity, but the demand performance is relatively general, on the other hand, due to the downstream stainless steel tired warehouse is expected to market trend under pressure. The International Nickel Study Group forecasts that in 2023, global primary nickel consumption will grow by 6% to 3.134 million tons; production will grow by 10.25% to 3.374 million tons; the general surplus in the global primary nickel market will increase from 105,000 tons in 2022 to 239,000 tons.
